Forecast with Nimiq micro-credits · No cash value
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POLYTICO
Live intelligence

The world is uncertain.
Price what happens next.

Polytico is a public forecasting market for news, politics, technology, and the forces shaping tomorrow.

News feed

AI-assisted briefings
REUTERS12 min ago

Markets weigh fresh signals from the Federal Reserve ahead of the next meeting.

Will the Fed cut rates before July?

AP NEWS38 min ago

Negotiators return to the table as pressure builds for a durable ceasefire.

Will a ceasefire hold in Ukraine through 2026?

THE VERGE1 hr ago

Apple expands its AI team and hints at a new product category.

Will Apple announce a new AI device this year?

Trending forecasts

Position using NIM · No cash value

Politics·$2.4M volume

Will the U.S. government shut down in 2026?

Closes Sep 30+4%
31%YES
31% YES69% NO
World·$1.8M volume

Will a ceasefire hold in Ukraine through 2026?

Closes Dec 31-2%
44%YES
44% YES56% NO
Economy·$928K volume

Will the Fed cut rates before July?

Closes Jun 30+7%
68%YES
68% YES32% NO
Technology·$612K volume

Will Apple announce a new AI device this year?

Closes Dec 15+1%
23%YES
23% YES77% NO
Culture·$349K volume

Will the next major film cross $1B globally?

Closes Nov 21-3%
56%YES
56% YES44% NO

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